On J-POD, the podcast on journalists and journalism, Rukmini Shrinivasan, the Chennai-based data journalist and host of The Moving Curve podcast, on the key takeaways from India’s COVID numbers.
Rukmini was earlier the data editor of The Hindu and HuffPost India.
No.4 India might end up No.1
The pandemic is definitely slowing up in the United States of America. Very soon Brazil is not going to be the Latin American country that’s in the biggest crisis; Chile and Peru are in real trouble. Russian numbers are declining and growing extremely slowly. In total aggregate numbers, India will have the most cases.
Official numbers are an undercount
Because we have a restrictive testing strategy, because of the nature of this disease, and because of all the wellkown gaps in healthcare, the lower count seems the most normal, natural course. We highly underreport malaria and TB every year. There’s little doubt it is happening with COVID.
India’s 3 worst-affected cities
“The overall numbers are looking pretty big and pretty bad right now. The three worst-affected cities in India—Delhi, Bombay and Chennai—are among the world’s most affected cities right now. No real signs of plateauing in them. Delhi and Chennai are seeing high exponential growth, which means not small jumps or linear growth but in multiples.
Three states that are looking bad
Telangana, not because it has the worst numbers but because it reports such little data. It has the worst record of reporting testing data of any state. Gujarat, which has a much higher mortality rate although the cases aren’t growing as fast as Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi. It has not ramped up testing. And Delhi.
Infection rate galloping in Delhi
Delhi numbers have been among the worst in the world. In Delhi, the share of tests that turn out to be positive (test positivity rate) is growing so fast, on some recent days it is as high as 50%, that it suggest the infection rate is climbing very fast and testing has not been ramped up in proportion.
What we don’t know enough about
The biggest, high-density areas are the ones that are struggling the most now. We are not hearing much from the satellite areas of big cities, like say Thane, Palghar and Raigad near Mumbai which include urban areas but also significantly rural areas. Aggregate numbers on testing hides what is happening within states.
Only 6 contacts being traced
A study by Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR) between January 22 and April 30 shows that on average only six contacts per person were being traced, not even tested. For over half of them, there are no real details on who was tested and why. In South Korea, the share of people whose contact details are traced is over 80%.
What offers hope
Growth rate in cases until now is relatively not problematic. Mortality rate right now is a good sign. The share of persons reporting positive who have moderate symptoms and who don’t need critical care is also a good sign. There hasn’t yet been an explosion of cases in poor states.
Does Narendra Modi deserve credit?
The numbers don’t capture the reality of all that’s happened in the last four months. The announcement of the lockdown with four hours to spare, and the immense hardship we have seen, it is impossible to separate the two. It is frustrating to see a constant projection of victory as people suffer and die.
Did lockdown prevent cases, deaths?
If the Narendra Modi government is copping criticism for cases and deaths continuing after the lockdown was lifted it is because of this constant need to project victory, to make it seem as if the lockdown was the thing that was going to come between India and a swarm of cases.
Latin America has better data than us
We do not have reliable updated data on bed availability, oxygen availability, ICU availability, ventilator availability. This is in contrast to Latin American countries which have complete updated data. One of the big failings of India’s response is the publicly available official data which is woefully inadequate.
State of official data is a real scandal
It’s truly shocking to see the state of our nationally available official data. When I look at Latin American countries, where you get downloadable, usable, historical data for every region, I feel a deep sense of envy. India gives you no historical data, only today’s numbers and not broken down any further beyond states. It’s a real scandal.
What sources should people use
The sources that I and other journalists use every day is a crowd-sourced volunteer-driven database called covid19india.org, set up by a group of extremely hard-working committed young people who put together bulletins from districts and states. They use official data but put it together which the government doesn’t do.
See what Rukmini said three months ago here: Brut India
13 things you wanted to know about India's COVID numbers but didn't know whom to ask