In 2015, BJP came third in the assembly elections in Bihar, just one year after the party had secured a massive victory in the 2014 general elections. Despite Narendra Modi’s 31 rallies; despite the promise of a “Rs 125,000 package”; despite the carrot of a “special status” for the state, it did not cut much ice with Bihari voters.
In 2020, with Modi’s novelty having worn off, with the 2016 demonetisation having ravaged lives of Bihar’s poor, with the COVID lockdown sparking a return of Bihar’s migrants, with chief minister Nitish Kumar facing massive anti-incumbency, it is difficult to see how pre-poll predictions of an NDA win in the three-phase election can come good, says a veteran Bihar hand.
Nobody is going to win
"Nitish Kumar will be a loser. BJP will be a loser. Probably the people of Bihar will be a loser. Pollsters will definitely be a loser.
“My gut feeling is we are in for a surprise. If the pollsters are anywhere near the truth, then we are probably heading for a hung house,” says Uttam Sengupta, the former resident editor of The Times of India in Bihar, who also covered the state for The Telegraph and India Today, on the journalism podcast J-POD.
Two pre-poll surveys in the past week have predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA in the 243 seat house.
CSDS-Lokniti gave 133-143 seats to the NDA against 88-98 to the grand alliance (Mahagatbandhan) of RJD, Congress and the Left.
CVoter gave 141-161 seats to NDA, 64-84 seats to Mahagathbandhan.
Unlikely, says Uttam Sengupta.
"Some in Bihar believe BJP will not mind if there is a hung house. They are so confident that they will have the resources to split any party—JDU or RJD or Congress—and cobble up the numbers,” says Sengupta, currently a consulting editor with the National Herald newspaper, founded by Jawaharlal Nehru.
Listen to the full podcast with Uttam Sengupta
Things changing fast in Bihar
"A month ago, the TINA (there is no alternative) factor was working in favour of Nitish Kumar. It looked like there was no other option. BJP was hung-ho. NDA was very confident: they were in power, they had the resources. RSS was working on the ground. Opposition was in disarray.
"Something has dramatically changed in the last 10 days. BJP leaders are so jittery they are saying if RJD wins, Bihar would be flooded by Kashmiri terrorists, Pakistan will start celebrating, Naxals will be back and so on. Nitish Kumar is losing his cool, he is being heckled, people are shouting slogans at his rallies in favour of Lalu.
"For the last five years, the media in Bihar or elsewhere could not see anything wrong in Bihar or Nitish Kumar. They took everything the BJP was saying as gospel truth. The fact that the same media can no longer ignore the crowds at Tejashwi Yadav’s meetings, and is reporting that Nitish Kumar is facing a hostile audience, tells you something. That despite their best efforts, they are no longer in a position to ignore it.”
Lockdown, the turning point
"The lockdown and the migration crisis, when Biharis were left to fend for themselves, was probably the turning point. That and the changing demographics. A higher proportion of the electorate—from 25% to 30%—is between 18 and 29. These are not willing to work in the fields or as masons.
"The anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar has been reported. That nothing happens without a bribe. The allegations of corruption in the Srijan scam, the Muzaffarpur shelter home scandal. Prohibition was a huge plank and earned goodwill from women. But it has backfired. There is a parallel black market.
"Law and order has collapsed in Bihar in the last three years. It is as bad, as lawless as it was earlier. If it was “jungle raj” in the 1990s, it is not much better now, with gang rapes and loots and robberies and dacoities. It is back to square one.”
Nitish Kumar facing anti-incumbency
"The poorest of Biharis have immense faith in Narendra Modi. They believe the PM is working 24 hours a day for their welfare. If their lot is not improving, they think it is not because of Modi, it is because of Nitish Kumar. It is a pardox difficult to explain.
"Nitish Kumar spent thousands of crores on vanity projects. He spent Rs 400 crore for a park in front of Patna railway station. He spent Rs 300 crore for an international convention centre. He spent money on building a human chain to get into the Guinness Book of records.
"Nitish Kumar spent Rs 500 crore on advertising. People say you spent money on all this but you don’t have money to create jobs, pay salaries.”
The state where it all stops
"A journalist called Pushyamitra has written a book recently titled ‘Ruktapur’. It’s an allegory to Bihar, where everything stops. Development stops, investment stops, education stops. He says in Bihar there are 12,000 sanctioned posts for doctors in government hospitals, but the actual strength is 2,800. For a population of 13 crores.
"You are not getting affordable education or affordable healthcare. You are not able to live without having to pay a cut. You are not getting livelihood or job opportunities.
“All leaders address the moment. Nitish Kumar addressed the moment. In 2020 they are over the hill. They have done what they could and have reached their level of incompetence. They cannot improve it further. You need a new imagination, a new drive. Nitish Kumar has run out of ideas.”
Tejashwi Yadav is here to stay
"Whether RJD wins or not, Tejashwi Yadav is here to stay and is going to stick around for sometime. He has been able to speak and connect with the people in a manner unthinkable just six months ago. The energy at his rallies is in stark contrast to Nitish Kumar and Modi’s, where everybody is stiff, bored, listless and indifferent.
“In Tejashwi’s rallies, they are shouting, screaming, jumping, trying to touch him, take selfies with him, rushing after his car, trying to reach his helicopter. I have seen similar scenes in Lalu’s rallies but nothing like this. Nothing like the frenzy this time.
"Tejashwi Yadav had a great one-liner to the BJP’s promise of free vaccine for COVID. He said they could not give sanitisers or masks for free, now they are promising free vaccine. This is going to boomerang, it won’t be taken kindly by Biharis.”
In 2015, TV channels, anchors, analysts and pollsters got it so wrong even on the day of counting, even while votes were being counted, that it produced an unputdownable column by the historian Mukul Kesavan in The Telegraph.
Read it here: Calling their bluff
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"Modi's promises didn't cut ice in Bihar in 2015. Can it work in 2020 after Demo and COVID crisis?"