Crazy question: Can Yediyurappa afford a comfortable BJP win—or even a decisive defeat?
There are (Brahmin) wheels within (Lingayat) wheels in the “party with a difference” in Karnataka. No one knows that better than BSY.
The way the BJP paints itself, the way the media projects BJP, the way voters, at least BJP voters, perceive the BJP, it is as if there are no ifs and buts in its rajniti, just certitude—and eternal victory.
There are the hands-on promoters (RSS); there is a mission statement (Hindutva); there is a game plan (majoritarianism); there is a goal (short term 2024; long term Hindu rashtra)—and all in the publicly listed company (BJP) render selfless seva, in complete servitude, as demanded by the CEO and COO, with least expectation of reward or recognition.
But what if it always isn’t so?
Like, maybe in the Karnataka Asssembly Elections 2023, where human beings with all their egos and empires, castes and legacies—not pre-programmed robots and anodyne automatons—are in the running?
All this is a roundabout way of asking a crazy, even somewhat stupid, question: Like, is it really in B.S. Yediyurappa’s interest to see BJP romp home to a thumping victory in the May 10 elections in its so-called “Gateway to the South”?
The polite, IT Cell-approved WhatsApp forward would be, yes, of course, and thus follows the following:
#Yediyurappa is a thoroughbred RSS horse used to working quietly, tirelessly, selflessly behind the scenes.
#Yediyurappa is a pucca team man. So what if he is not the captain-elect this time, he has led four times before.
#Yediyurappa has laid every brick of the edifice on which the BJP stands and is its only pan-Karnataka figure.
Therefore, goes the counter argument, why would BSY want to squander all that goodwill earned over half a century and sully his record by doing anything but work wholeheartedly for a BJP jeet on May 13?
Maybe, but is there one ‘i’ or two in naive? #JustAsking
***
To be sure, Yediyurappa, a man with a low boiling point and a long memory, has conducted himself with admirable poise after somebody (not Tejasvi Surya) opened the Emergency door in the CM’s office in July 2021.
Look, see:
#BSY has spoken well of his preferred successor Basavaraj Bommai although the latter has veered away and thinks he is his own man, not beholden to his one-time mentor.👇🏿
#Even in the midst of oversized wigs parachuting into the war arena, BSY is the first BJP man every itinerant journalist in any language calls upon, to feel the pulse of what is happening on the ground.👇🏿
#BSY has struck the right note as the primary vote magnet of the party, unlike Hindutva hotheads like the state’s unseen and unheard BJP chief Nalin Kateel, who said the 2023 election was between Tipu Sultan and V.D. Savarkar.👇🏿
#After Lingayats Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savdi were benched, BSY has gone out of his way to suggest that he is on the same page as the party high command. He has termed their defection to the Congress as a “betrayal” and said he will write it in blood that the two will lose.👇🏿
#And, despite their decade-long shadow-boxing, Yediyurappa has sought to build bridges with the RSS pointsman in the BJP, B.L. Santhosh—at least for public consumption—especially after the selection of candidates and buzz of a “Brahmin CM” blew up bigtime in the latter’s face.👇🏿
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All this anybody can see, and all this is to B.S. Yediyurappa’s credit.
But politics as everybody knows is what happens behind the headlines and away from the TV cameras—it is what happens between the ears of its practitioners. Peering into that space, the answer to the crazy/stupid question of whether Yediyurappa will want a big BJP victory, is: it’s not as simple as it may seem, bro.
For starters, what’s in it for BSY himself when he has formally hung up his safari suit? (He made his farewell speech in the Assembly in February.) And for another, he is not even in the electoral fray in 2023, and stands next to no chance of winning the OK of his party bosses to become CM again at the age of 80.
In any case, even with Yediyurappa at his peak, BJP never won a clear majority.
So, why now?
One possible motivation, it can argued, is carving out a firm future for his son B.Y. Vijayendra, who is making his electoral debut from the family’s stronghold of Shikaripura at the ripe young age of 50, when he still calls the shots somewhat.
A win for Vijayendra will certainly help Yediyurappa settle him down for the long run, but it is highly unlikely that a first-time MLA will stand any chance at the BJP legislature party after May 13, no matter his political pedigree, community affiliation, or electoral wizardry.
Moreover, Yediyurappa has thrice seen the trepidation with which the party views his second son (the first, B.Y. Raghavendra, is a BJP MP from Shimoga)—especially his attempts to inherit his father’s mantle as the BJP’s Lingayat supremo when the time is opportune.
#In 2018, when Vijayendra had all but jumped into the assembly election race from Siddaramaiah’s constituency of Varuna, against the latter’s son, the BJP high command blew the whistle at the last minute. It was humiliation pro max.
#In 2021, Vijayendra’s proposed nomination to the Upper House in Karnataka, with hopes of a ministerial berth, was nixed by the Delhi bosses. (As it is, Vijayendra’s emergence as a parallel power centre—a “de facto CM”—had short-circuited Yediyurappa’s fourth stint as CM.)
#In 2023, when the party tried to put up Vijayendra against Siddaramaiah in Varuna, Yediyurappa smelt a trap to cut him down to size. He unilaterally announced that his son would be fielded from Shikaripura. (C.T. Ravi, the BJP general secretary, brusquely said the allocation of seats would not be decided in “anybody’s kitchen” i.e. BSY’s home.)
In the end, the BJP ticket for Shikaripura was eventually handed out to Vijayendra as per Yediyurappa’s wishes but the underlying message was loud and clear: Watch Out.
So, a win for his son will be a useful signal to send to his detractors for Yediyurappa, but is it enough motivation for him to toil for a total BJP triumph? As it is, he is up against history: no incumbent party has been voted back to power in Karnataka in 40 years.
And the BJP after “40%”?
***
All things considered, it is the surround sound of a “Brahmin CM” emanating from Delhi that is likely to be the single biggest impediment to a full-scale B.S. Yediyurappa performance.
Although Yediyurappa’s appeal cuts across communities, by virtue of being a Lingayat himself, he has attracted the sobriquet of a “Lingayat leader”.
He has also extracted much out of it.
Lingayats, at 17% of the state’s 6.5 crore population, constitute one of its single largest voting blocs. (Just one section of the Lingayat vote, the Panchamashalis, is said to exceed 50 lakhs).
In all fairness, the BJP has been more accommodating of Lingayat interests than the Congress.
Three Lingayats—Basavaraj Bommai, Jagadish Shettar and Yediyurappa himself—have been the party’s choice for chief minister at various times, but the “Brahmin CM” buzz this time has struck right at the core of the community.👇🏿
Despite the noisy protests from Lingayats, the BJP has refrained from declaring that the next CM will be a Lingayat, possibly because it will send the wrong signal to other major communities that it is trying to woo (like, say, Vokkaligas). 👇🏿
Yediyurappa has had to placate leaders of the Lingayat community saying that they should think of him as the CM candidate, but does it have any carry given the manner in which he was eased out?👇🏿
Listen to Jagadish Shettar now👇🏿
So strong is the “Brahmin CM” rumour that B.L. Santhosh, the party’s general secretary in charge of organisation and the man seen to be behind the Brahmin push, has had to clarify that he “does not wish to be a competitor”.
Notice, he does not say “I am not a competitor”, merely that he does not wish to be one.
So, the possibility of a number of MLA hands going up in favour of him (or any other Brahmin candidate like, say, Union minister Pralhad Joshi) at the BJPLP meeting after the results on May 13, very much exists, which is precisely what Lingayats fear.
On top of that, K.S. Eshwarappa, Yediyurappa’s bum chum turned bete noire from Shimoga, has muddied the waters by suggesting C.T. Ravi, a Vokkaliga, as CM.👇🏿
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All the talk of a Brahmin, Lingayat or Vokkaliga as CM is premature when even BJP-friendly opinion pollsters are beginning to paint a less than rosy picture for God’s Own Party.
#A CVoter survey (sample size 21,895) for TV9 gives a 27-seat margin for Congress (106-116) over BJP (79-89).
# A citizen-journalists’ survey (sample size 41,169) for Eedina suggests Congress may end up with 132-140 seats; BJP 57-64.
A decisive victory for BJP will not work to Yediyurappa’s advantage for it will convince the party that it can win in spite of him—and in spite of Lingayats and their apprehensions. And it will tighten the hold of Delhi on the Karnataka unit.
Conversely, a decisive BJP defeat will also work against him, for it will only hasten the change of blood that the party appears to have put in process. (In 2013, when Yediyurappa left the BJP and formed his own party, the BJP lost 14% and 70 seats.)
Yediyurappa’s best-case scenario, in the circumstances, is a so-near-and-yet-so-far scenario: a BJP tally of around 80-90, with candidates owing allegiance to him in the majority. That would give him the leverage that he so desperately seeks for his son.
Opinion is divided on how many candidates of Yediyurappa’s camp have got in—and how many of them will win. Bizarrely, he claims “there’s no one who can be pointed out as Yediyurappa’s candidate in any of the 224 constituencies”.👇🏿
One thing is clear. B.L. Santhosh’s hamhanded attempts to remove other Brahmins from the race (like Suresh Kumar and Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri) met with an equal and opposite force: the trademark Yediyurappa tantrum.
Yediyurappa returned to Bangalore in a huff. It took a phone call from party president J.P. Nadda to inform him that their lists had some sync. But who is to say that Yediyurappa has not received the big message from multiple sources?
A crazy question is actually not so crazy when the writing is on the wall.